We report. You decide.

I am going to try to post barley prices during the plebiscite period on the sidebar to the right. If they aren't 100% up to date, please do not get on my case too much; I do have other work that does not involve barley prices and it must also get done.

CWB prices are taking off the CWB website. WCE prices come from the WCE website. North Dakota prices come from here. Montana prices come from the USDA. More prices can be added. I still need to track down the Agricore United export feed barley price and others and add more deliver points. If you have any suggestions, comments are open.

Spinning dangerously out of control?

The following letter ought to win an award. You've got to hand it to the CWB; they can spin with the best of them.

February 9, 2007

Letter to the Editor

It was suggested in the February 1 issues of the Manitoba Cooperator and Farmers Independent Weekly that an Ontario farmer currently selling hard red spring wheat with 13.5 per cent protein would receive $5.50 per bushel, whereas a grower on the Prairies selling 1CWRS would receive about $4.40 per bushel as a final pool return—approximately $1.10 less. The implication is that this is because of poor performance by the CWB. That implication is incorrect, because of several errors in the comparison.

To begin with, the comparison relates a spot price (the Ontario price) to a pool value (the CWB Pool Return Outlook). This is a misleading comparison. A pool value is by definition an average of prices achieved over an entire crop year. In a rising market such as we have experienced so far this crop year, a spot price is always higher than a pooled price. Is the CWB selling wheat at those “high” Ontario values and returning those dollars to farmers? Yes. In fact, CWB values are even higher, as noted below.

The Ontario farmer spot price of $5.50 per bushel is presumably a price at or near an Ontario mill. Therefore, an appropriate comparison would be the current price of CWB wheat landed at an Ontario mill. On February 5, the CWB offered eastern mills No.1 CWRS with 13.5 per cent protein for $230.47 per tonne at Thunder Bay. Add to this freight charges of $25 from Thunder Bay to the mill, and the landed price equals $255.47 per tonne or $6.95 per bushel.

The comparison, then, is between $5.50 per bushel of hard red spring wheat to the Ontario farmer and $6.95 per bushel for CWB wheat sold in Ontario. This $6.95 per bushel would be added to the pooled payments western farmers receive for wheat sold throughout the 2006-07 crop year. Because the CWB’s Ontario sales prices are based on competitive North American values, western farmers can obtain similar cash values today under the CWB’s other pricing options such as our Daily Price Contract. It appears that Ontario farmers are receiving prices that are significantly under current market values.

The truth, therefore, is the exact opposite: CWB prices are higher.

Sincerely,

Gord Flaten,

CWB Vice-President of Marketing

The entire letter rests upon the CWB's belief in its own power, that they can tell processors, millers, and bakers what the price of wheat is anywhere and everywhere. I suppose in some fantasy world perhaps, but what buyer would pay $6.95/bu to the CWB when it can apparently buy from local growers for $5.50?

The CWB's "offered" price is not the price the farmer delivers against. The farmer delivers against the PRO or against Fixed Price and Daily Price Contracts that are based on US futures prices adjusted by basis levels and CWB deductions and "adjusting factors". But if they can claim this made up price to be "the truth", then I suppose I can claim that my farm is "offering" canola for $15/bu this year, oats for $3.50/bu, and confectionary sunflowers at $0.40/lb and make the accountant and the credit union really happy.

The single desk seems to give the CWB a monopoly on one thing: crazy. I hope no one else is buying what they are selling.

Cold hard facts

This morning I wrote about appealing to emotion. This afternoon, it's all numbers.

The Winnipeg Commodity Exchange has announced that it is ready to provide international risk management tools for barley should the single desk be removed. In preparation, it is posting weekly international prices for feed and malt barley on its website. There is also market commentary provided by Informa Economics regarding the feed barley market on the WCE site.

The report seems to confirm some of my thoughts from the weekend:

Obviously, the lack of export movement from the CWB is having an impact on feed barley values in some regions of the prairies. Granted the Pool is based on an average of sales over the last six months of the crop year. However, since there are likely very few sales against that Pool yet, it is puzzling as to why the PRO is not more competitive than it is. The fact that feed barley is not being exported out of Saskatchewan does appear to be limiting non-board bids at this time.

And it's not only a couple of sales to Japan:

At the time that this article was written, Middle Eastern buyers were paying as much as US$246 per tonne for feed barley on a CIF basis. It would likely take about US$45 per tonne to ship barley from Canada to the Middle East, leaving the price at about US$200 per tonne at the St. Lawrence or Vancouver. Using a Canadian dollar of 86.5, that converts to about C$231 per tonne. If we assume about $16 per tonne for cleaning and elevation, feed barley would be worth about C$215 per tonne, in store Vancouver or the St. Lawrence.

Under our current system, this is a revelation. In a marketing choice environment, it's just business.